"Only 7% this year ," " end of the boom ," " Chinese slowdown ." According to some pundits, China would suffer a generalized economic slowdown and it is therefore time to look elsewhere for growth. What a mistake. China this year will represent 40% of global growth. 40%, with "only" 7.5% annual growth.
Percentages have indeed the tendency to smooth out the numbers: if China succeeds to keep growth at this level, it will represent in absolute numbers a much larger figure than 6 years ago , when the world was fascinated by its 12 % annual growth. These 7.5% growth represent about 640 billion dollars, compared with an increase of the world's economy of about 1.58 trillion dollars, according to World Bank figures. Nearly 40 % of the total.
In addition, we should take into consideration that these figures were calculated mid-2013, while India , Brazil and Russia still showed very promising performances in 2013 - it has changed since, epitomized by the fall of the flamboyant Brazilian billionaire Eike Batista, or the devaluation of the Indian rupee by more than 25 %. China, with all the challenges it is facing, appears as a (relative) haven of stability for those seeking growth.
These 40 % should make us reflect a moment and properly asses the consequences of turning away from the Chinese market given the difficulties faced by some foreign groups. Germany’s example reminds us that exposure to growth in emerging economies - and therefore for 40% to China - is a huge element of competitiveness. China has become the first global market in a growing number of sectors: automotive, telecommunications, energy ... and soon distribution, luxury, food. There is no other choice but to be present in China, by learning from the past and by innovating in the way to master this market.
It would be terribly damaging for European companies to turn away from China because of the growing pains during those first 15 years : they would miss the boat of the next twenty-five years which will see the emergence of China as the worlds’ largest domestic market.
Andre Loesekrug-Pietri (@andrepietri)
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